Dynamics of COVID-19 data with varying degrees of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions using Models with Hyperbolic Sine Restrictions

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions using Models with Hyperbolic Sine Restrictions

Abstract

COVID-19 mortality measures based on the daily reported data were modelled and compared using Exponential and Hyperbolic Exponential growth equations. Nigeria data was used to compute case fatality rate, infection fatality rate and crude death rate which were modelled using Weibull, Lognormal, Exponential and Gamma probability distributions. Exponential and Hyperbolic Exponential Growth models were used to forecast the likelihood of emerging cases and death as a result of Covid-19 using the Nigeria Data.