Forecasting of Rain Fall by Error-Trend-Season Model and Simulation by Microsoft Office Excel

Abstract

Prediction is very important for better planning and appropriating development. It is crucial for profitable business, regional development and country’s economy. In this review paper, rain fall data is analysed by Error, Trend and Season (ETS) model. From ETS equation, rain fall in forthcoming years is predicted. ETS model is fitted for Velachery area of greater Chennai metropolitan city. For the sake of simplicity, the prediction is provided rain fall for next two consecutive years.