An Evaluation of Compartmental Models for the Comprehension of COVID-19 Dynamics with Range of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract

The effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions at suggested realistic levels of compliance in flattening the Covid-19 incidence curve was examined in light of the peculiarities of Nigeria's social-economic realities, which may contribute to a low turnout for vaccination against Covid-19. To analyze the impact of these initiatives, an updated SEIR model was created and put into use. The Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC)'s Covid-19 data on daily new cases was used to parametrize the model. The proposed model was utilized in simulation to alter the effects of various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Investigations on non-pharmaceutical therapies have included hand washing, facemask use, and slight social withdrawal. Despite a significant decrease in daily new cases of the disease, none of the tested therapies helps halt the disease's spread when used alone. Nevertheless, a combination of the three therapies resulted in a 92% drop in daily new cases and is successful in eventually halting the spread of the illness with R₀ = 0.98.