Development of Vehicular Accidents Prediction Model for NH-59a between Indore and Nemawar

Abstract

The numbers of accidents are rising in the country. Accidents occurrence on the roads are not often due to ignorance, but are due to neglecting behavior, thoughtlessness and presumptuousness. According to latest edition of MoRT&H (Ministry of Road Transport and Highways 2018) the total number of accidents related deaths in 2018 was 1, 51,417 which indicates the increment of 2.3% from 2017. The main aim of the study is to develop an Accident Analysis Model using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis, to analyze the accidents on the Indore-Nemawar Road (NH59-A) up to 48 km from Devguradiya to Chapda and to study the effects of road geometry in causing accidents thus, suggesting whether widening is needed or not followed by checking of capacity. Remedial measures are also proposed. The road accident data in the study corridor of NH-59A is collected from 2015 - 2019 over a starch of 48 km starting from Devguradiya in Indore to Hatpipliya in Dewas covering three police station as Khudel, Barotha and Hatpipliya. Using accident analysis, it is found that Khudel police station has maximum number of accidents while Hatpipliya police station has lowest number of accidents. SPSS was used and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis was done and the values of F-test, T-Test, R-square were calculated and a model was prepared. The model was apt according to the desired values.